Winds of Change

Winds of Change

According to the font of all knowledge (ie google and Wikipedia);

“The year 2024 is notable for the large number of elections being held worldwide: at least 64 countries, home to nearly half of the global population, will vote, including eight of the world’s 10 most populous nations – Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States; in addition, the European Union held elections for the European Parliament in June. Around 2 billion voters– approximately a quarter of the world’s population – are eligible to vote in elections this year.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024

From the point of view of the global economy and investment markets most of these 64 are not very important but a select few certainly are.

The USA;

The world’s biggest economy and biggest market which has been flying high in recent times which has meant that although other major central banks are cutting rates or at least lining cuts up, the Federal Reserve is holding fire as employment figures are strong, and inflation is much higher than in European and other developed countries.

We want a strong US economy but there is a real risk that money that might have been invested elsewhere, will be sucked up by the US (which already gets more than its fair share), as investors see rates remaining high and a strong dollar which makes it a great place for their funds.

Will Biden holding out or will Trump returning to power make much of a difference? Initially it could, when Trump was elected initially US markets slumped and then rebounded very strongly. Why? Perhaps shock and then optimism that a President that likes to ‘make a deal’ would be good for the US. And in some ways, he was…

US polls suggest that Americans do think he would be better for the economy. It doesn’t mean they are right, but it could swing the election.

India;

The world biggest democracy and most populous nation. Many analysts think India will overtake China as the worlds 2nd economy, though not anytime soon as this table shows;

Prime Minister Modi has over seen a period of strong growth but now having to form a coalition and no longer having a majority as he has will be a new challenge. Will he learn to work with partners? Will this be beneficial to India or slow economic progress?

Recently India has been benefiting from the move away from manufacturing in China and the growth of its own internal market pushing well known brands to open or expand operations across the country. Chinese growth has slowed considerably for multiple reasons like the ongoing ‘trade not-quite-war’ with the US and the Communist Parties attempts to retake control of China from the influence of its richest and most successful entrepreneurs like Jack Ma who founded Alibaba.

Based on the table above, if growth rates continue to be strong, India could move from 5th to the 3rd largest economy pretty rapidly.

The UK;

We can’t forget out own elections, can we? The polls and general mood of the country suggests the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Labour… but by how much?

Our economy seems to be ‘OK’ at the moment after a bit of an autumn/winter dip with employment still high and inflation back down to the Ban of England’s 2% target and rate cuts on the cards for August or September. Much to the relief of millions of homeowners with mortgage deals expiring later this year and over the next few years.

Will the election change our economic outlook? In the short term it’s unlikely though a renewed sense of optimism could have a positive impact on markets here and business investment after a rather tumultuous politician landscape for the past few years.

France;

After the far rights triumph in the European parliamentary elections Emanuel Macron has called a snap election starting on the 30th of June.

Some might see it as a strange response but often in France voters will come together and back a centrist option rather than let the far right take power, so perhaps he’s using this to shock voters into coming back to the centre?

Or perhaps Europe will see a 28-year-old Jordan Bardella elected with the Nationally Rally sweeping into power? It won’t be too long until we see if Macron’s gamble was genius or madness.

Either way, will this really make a difference to us? To the world? France is still among the major economic and military powers of the world and Franco-German relations have been the bedrock of the EU for generations, so perhaps it won’t change much but don’t be surprised if it does.

Mexico;

Claudia Sheinbaum was elected this month as Mexico’s first female President. Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) was not able to run again due to Mexico’s political rules, but his chosen successor romped away with the election and took over 50% of the vote.

Interestingly her main rival was also a woman and this is in a country with terrible levels of violence against women and general repression.

Despite a ‘revolutionary’ leftist government for many years Mexico has been growing well economically and many say it has been the biggest winner of the US-China trade war, which has seen many manufacturers scramble to relocate to America’s southern neighbour.

Given that the new President was moulded by the same party as its last President, change does not really seem to be on the cards but perhaps that’s no bad thing.

Summary;

It would have been a mammoth task to cover every single election in the world in 2024 but hopefully this brief run through gives you some extra insight into what’s going on in a very ‘interesting’ year.

By Alex Fry (Managing Director)
alex@goddardfry.co.uk